2012

[Cirevam]

Humans don't need to revert to primal instincts ever because we're a cultural species. Also, people overestimate the power of the world's nuclear arsenal. We can guesstimate to figure out how many nukes it would take to wipe out everyone on the planet. We know that the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings did not level the entire cities, so there is no complete destruction. We know that Hiroshima was 26 square miles at the time and Nagasaki was 35. Let's take the average at 30 square miles. Nuclear weaponry is far more advanced now than it was fifty years ago, so let's say the average nuclear bomb can level half of the city and affect the other half with nuclear fallout (though some bombs limit the amount of fallout by eliminating the fast-fission process). Let's find the size of the United States as a comparison now. The US is about 3000 miles wide and 1000 miles tall, so that gives us 3 million or 3*10⁶ square miles.

Currently there are about 25000 nuclear weapons stockpiled and less than half of those are active. If we fire all of them at the US all at different but adjacent locations, how much are we going to hit? 30*25000 = 750000 or 7.5*10⁵ square miles. 7.5*10⁵ / 3*10⁶ = 0.25 If each of the nuclear weapons had the power to destroy 120 square miles apiece, then the entire US would be destroyed, but you can see from the estimates here that only about a quarter of the entire country would be affected directly.

I'm not taking a theoretical nuclear winter into account (because it is just a theory, though a strong one) but one can imagine that destroying any country that is significant to the world's economy would essentially screw everyone else over, at least for a while. Remember that before the New World was discovered people were able to survive easily, so we could go back to that if people actually try. Early Homo species also lived and survived during the Pleistocene, or Ice Age, so if we end up with a nuclear winter than it should be possible to survive, though pretty much all of those species went extinct so that tells you a lot about them. So if we don't throw too much particulant matter into the atmosphere and we don't set off too many earthquakes or volcanic eruptions and we do make sure that countries grow enough food so they can support themselves, we could eliminate 5% of the world's population and get away with it. This, unfortunately, is extremely unlikely.

Oh in case you were wondering about that last bit, yes, 300 million people divided by 6 billion people = 5 percent. But yeah, we might not have enough weaponry to destroy the planet or the entire world population directly, but we can sure ruin the infrastructure and make everyone starve to death.

Edit: Mouse, note the sentence right before this edit. I'm actually agreeing with your views, though in a more extremist manner. :)

[Anonymouse]

I beg to differ (at least a little), Cirevam.

I don't believe that destroying, say, the USA, will have such a small impact on the life of other people. Especially because of food. A huge amount of food is imported from the US to Europe because of the low cost. The absence of this produce would make food prices go shooting up, making a lot of people become poor just buying food.

I think a (sort of) likely cause for the end of the world would be mankind's pollution. We've all heard about it before, so I don't need to explain. (Or rather, I can't be bothered to explain).

[TheEPICtrainrider]

PLEASE NOTE: this is my understanding of world hunger, please do not be offended by the following statement.

You see, because we have a habit of reproducing, we usually create enough offspring for us to survive as a species. At this point in time, it would be a bad thing. We would usually lose a few offspring if we are in nature, maybe more, due to the fact that we had predators, and things that will kill us (like smallpox) . After a few hundreds /thousands of years, we were able to remove this threat (EX, we don't get killed by wild animals as much as we used too, and we developed tons of vaccines that we have nearly wiped out smallpox and other nasty things). Now that we don't have the threat, we can create offspring, that will most likely not get killed through natural selection. Because of this, our population sky rockets.

More population= less space and less food.

Think of it this way, you have too many plants in your house, what happens?

Your water bill will go up and you are covered by leafy greenness. If our POP. keeps going up, we will run out of space, and will run out of food.

Thus, world hunger in the ultimate form, and the mass extinction of the human race.

[Anonymouse]

Your water bill will go up and you are covered by leafy greenness. If our POP. keeps going up, we will run out of space, and will run out of food.

Thus, world hunger in the ultimate form, and the mass extinction of the human race.

Extinction? No, I believe the population would just hover quite high:

1. Person gets born

2. Food consumption of the Earth goes up a little

3. Person dies

4. Food consumption of the Earth goes down a little

5. Go back to 1

It would just go round in circles. This circle would obviously happen very many times a day, but the population would probably stop rising and hover stably.

[TheEPICtrainrider]

Well, more babies are born then people are dying. That's why the Population would increase. Thus, mass extinction.

[Anonymouse]

Well, more babies are born then people are dying. That's why the Population would increase. Thus, mass extinction.

You're missing the point.

When the population gets too high, people will start dying at the same rate as people are born, approximately, resulting in a small ping-pong at a very high level.

[TheEPICtrainrider]

Yes, unless we have sudden drop in food supply (like a storm hitting the corn belt/another dust bowl) then people would all die in a matter of months, due to crop failure.

[Anonymouse]

...

Come to think of it, you have a point. However, I believe at least a billion people would survive, which would basically restart the human civilization.

[Acmex]

I am split, 75-24.

75: We are going to keep sitting here, same as always

24: We all are dead, but the world keeps going

1: World goes bang.

Has anyone ever read the book: Atlantis Found, by Clive Cussler?

It depicts the extinction of a first evolution of humanity by a thing called a Polar Shift.

Which *is* real.

And we are overdue.

[Anonymouse]

I hardly think a switch of the magnetic poles will kill humanity.

Maybe wipe some hard drives and/or break other electronic equipment though (only hypothetically of course).

[Cirevam]

There is a period of time during the pole shift when the Earth's magnetic field basically doesn't have any effect, or so I've heard. It lasts a few years, but again I can't remember if this is what I heard. If this is the case, say goodbye to our magnetosphere, say hello to cosmic rays. Luckily, we have things like sunscreen and parasols to counter this, so like Mouse said it's really not much of a threat to our species.

[Eagle98]

There is a period of time during the pole shift when the Earth's magnetic field basically doesn't have any effect, or so I've heard. It lasts a few years, but again I can't remember if this is what I heard. If this is the case, say goodbye to our magnetosphere, say hello to cosmic rays. Luckily, we have things like sunscreen and parasols to counter this, so like Mouse said it's really not much of a threat to our species.

No, not really. The poles flipping would have nothing really that horrifiying on us (unless if you're a compass freak). And also this flip would happen over the course of 100 thousand years, so it's extremely gradual. That's why the north magnetic pole is not in the same place as the north geographic pole, if you look at a globe.

As for the 2012 idea, I don't think it's gonna happen. December 21 2009 is just the end of a Mayan cycle, nothing catastrophic. We all know the solar year (um, the one you use) will end on December 31st 2009 this year, but that doesn't mean the Earth will blow up then. As for the planetary alignment, it won't black out Earth. Maybe just create little spectacles in they night sky.

I've even heard that the Mayans said the world will not end on that day. This ah-we're-all-going-to-die-in-the-year-2012 originated in the US.

[Anonymouse]

No, not really. The poles flipping would have nothing really that horrifiying on us (unless if you're a compass freak). And also this flip would happen over the course of 100 thousand years, so it's extremely gradual. That's why the north magnetic pole is not in the same place as the north geographic pole, if you look at a globe.

Well, they don't *move* to switch. They move around naturally a bit, and switch in an instant when they do. I think.

In other words, it would have an effect on a lot of things. Maybe even like an EMP weapon O_O

[Eagle98]

Well, they don't *move* to switch. They move around naturally a bit, and switch in an instant when they do. I think.

In other words, it would have an effect on a lot of things. Maybe even like an EMP weapon

They do move to flip, not switch in an instant. Also, here's a link to NASA's Q&A page on 2012:

http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/ask-an-astrobiologist/intro/nibiru-and-doomsday-2012-questions-and-answers

Edited November 16, 2009 by Cyrem
Link has been fixed

[TheDoctor]

Please. The world will not end in 2012 (which the topic was about). You are going to believe that a calendar is going to end the world as we know it? The Mayan calender does not end at 2012, nor does the one on your refrigerator. They just stopped making dates after that day. Your calender doesn't end on December 31 either. There are the two little months in the corner, November and January. Stop worrying.

Oh, and about (its) the end of the world as we know it. I don't even know. The media has polluted my mind so much with apocalyptic situations ranging from Wall-E to the Matrix that I can't produce a proper theory of my own. But what I can come up with is that we will run out of something. That what I've got.

[Eagle98]

I'm on your side, as always. Don't forget to bet your friend a hundred dollars that the world will not end by 2012!

[ftgsarge]

If the world will end. the last Friday the 13th will be in July. Dec 21 is also on Friday. But it will not end and my proof is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013

[Sonic322]

I could not understand a single word of that wiki page FTG. Can somebody make it a little clearer for me?

[Anonymouse]

I'm on your side, as always. Don't forget to bet your friend a hundred dollars that the world will not end by 2012!

Well, that's somewhat of a winning bet...

Sonic, it's just a listing of events that are predicted to happen in 2013.

[dabomb29]

Seriously, it's not going to happen.

If you have ever read the history of the Mayans, you will realize that their calendar went to the 4000's, but the Spanish destroyed parts of their calendar when they raided the Mayan settlements.

This shouldn't be in the SERIOUS-BUSINESS section.

[Eagle98]

Of course it's not gonna happen.

The Mayan calander ends in 2012 (at least that's what they say), but saying that the world will be destroyed because of this is just like saying that the world will end every December 31st.

[TheEPICtrainrider]

My science teacher said that we really don't know exactly when the Mayan calender ends, so we guess around a bit; but we know it's happening around now.

They first thought it was going to be at the turn of the century, but that didn't happen, so now they think it's going to happen on 2012. It could have ended for all we know.

Right now, I'm more worried on getting shot from a helicopter driven by the reincarnation Napoleon then 2012

[Shadow322]

I'm starting to have second thoughts about the whole thing.

Its just a crummy stone calendar ending.

Ya like the world will really end.

Did you know that it is a fact that we have the power to destroy the planet right now, we have nukes!

It more likely someone will go on a killing rampage at the United Nations.

[Anonymouse]

I'm starting to have second thoughts about the whole thing.

Its just a crummy stone calendar ending.

Ya like the world will really end.

Did you know that it is a fact that we have the power to destroy the planet right now, we have nukes!

It more likely someone will go on a killing rampage at the United Nations.

Or States.

But I don't think we'll destroy the earth, at least not like that.

Most likely is over-deforestation, leading to less O₂, leading to the choking of the earth.

[Joe9412]

I'm starting to have second thoughts about the whole thing.

Its just a crummy stone calendar ending.

Ya like the world will really end.

Actually they have noticeted the maians to be a very intelligent people. There temples line up with the sun *or stars* just like the pyramids. I belive they could be right, but i also belive the world just might end "as we know it." How do you know the world? Most of mankind knows the world as with cars and pollution and all that crap. Also it could be money. If it is nature then that means that have about used all of our natural resources *doubt it* so that is my oppinion. I have seen the movie 2012 and i doubt that will happen.